Opta’s supercomputer has predicted Manchester City as the clear favourites to secure an unprecedented fifth consecutive Premier League title.
Opta’s statistical models are renowned for their simulations that provide insights into how the new season might unfold.
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The season kicks off on Friday night with Manchester United hosting Fulham at Old Trafford. Ahead of the action, Opta has shared their predictions.
It’s no surprise to see Pep Guardiola’s team at the top of the standings again, but the probability of City emerging as champions in Opta’s 10,000 simulations is remarkable.
City are projected to win the league in 82.2 percent of scenarios, with the likelihood of finishing in second and third at 13.8 and 3.5 percent, respectively. This leaves them with just a 0.4 percent chance of ending up in fourth place.
These results somewhat undermine Arsenal’s prospects, despite their close competition with City in recent seasons.
Mikel Arteta’s team was a standout for much of last season and ended it in excellent form.
Arteta has strengthened his defense with Italian Riccardo Calafiori, but additional signings in attack may be necessary to fully ensure they can contend for the title.
The supercomputer forecasts Arsenal’s most probable finishing position as second, with a 48.8 percent chance, compared to a mere 12.2 percent chance of winning the league.
Opta seems to be impressed by Liverpool’s new manager, Arne Slot, or perhaps the Reds’ squad’s quality suggests they will maintain their previous season’s performance.
Liverpool, still without a new signing, are frequently projected to finish in third place, occurring 40.2 percent of the time in Opta’s simulations.
They are also given a slim 5.1 percent chance of winning the league. The top three from last season, along with Chelsea and Newcastle, have a higher likelihood of lifting the title than just 0.1 percent.
The competition for the final Champions League spot appears intriguing, with four teams separated by just eight percent. Chelsea are favoured at 19.5 percent, followed by Newcastle at 17.5 percent, Manchester United at 12.9 percent, and Tottenham at 11.8 percent.
Interestingly, United are one of only three clubs to occupy all 20 positions in Opta’s 10,000 simulations. Remarkably, they have a 0.3 percent chance of finishing 18th and being relegated.
Aston Villa, who were in that position last season, are projected to be lower down in eighth, while West Ham, who have heavily invested in their squad under new manager Julen Lopetegui, are more likely to finish below Crystal Palace.
At the bottom of the table, Opta predicts that the three promoted teams are most likely to be relegated immediately. Their simulations show minimal difference in their final positions.
Southampton is expected to finish last 28.6 percent of the time, Ipswich 27.4 percent, and Leicester 23.4 percent.
Conversely, Nottingham Forest, projected to end in 17th place, only finished 20th in 9.2 percent of simulations.
The final places were rounded out by Brighton, Fulham, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, and Wolves. These teams were closely grouped, with differences of less than one percentage point in various positions.
Brighton, under their new head coach Fabian Hurzeler, the youngest manager in Premier League history, are tipped to finish 11th with a 9.4 percent chance. Wolves, however, have a 16.5 percent chance of finishing five places lower in 16th.
Everton, who will play their final season at Goodison Park before moving to a new stadium, are projected to finish comfortably in 13th.
Everton are one of eight teams to finish bottom more than 100 times in Opta’s 10,000 simulations.
