Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid are the usual contenders for the top spot, and this season, all three have legitimate hopes of claiming the title in a closely contested race.
Over the weekend, victories for Barcelona and Atletico put pressure on the reigning champions, who suffered a 2-1 defeat against Real Betis on Saturday, leaving them three points adrift of first place.
Here’s what Opta’s supercomputer predicts for the 2024/25 La Liga title race.
On Sunday, Barcelona regained the top spot with a commanding win over ten-man Real Sociedad, putting them one point ahead of Atletico and three ahead of their Clasico rivals.
Their title chances have significantly improved, with Opta giving them a 47.76% probability of dethroning Madrid. Barcelona currently has 57 points and is expected to accumulate another 26 before the season ends.
Atletico moved past their city rivals on Saturday with a narrow victory at home against fourth-placed Athletic Club, thanks to Julian Alvarez’s second-half winner.
Diego Simeone’s team, boasting the best defensive record in the league and having only lost twice this season, is now the second favorite to win the title.
Atletico has a 26.98% chance of claiming the league, just slightly higher than the 25.22% chance given to their rivals, Real Madrid.
The defending champions faced a disappointing defeat to Real Betis, with former Los Blancos star Isco scoring the decisive goal. Real Madrid has now won just one of their last five league matches, dropping to third place.
As Atletico and Madrid prepare to face each other in the Champions League round of 16, their focus on La Liga may waver over the next two weeks.
Los Rojiblancos also have upcoming league and cup clashes against Barcelona on either side of the March international break.
While technically, Athletic Club and Villarreal are still in the running for the title, both have less than a 0.1% chance of pulling off the ultimate shock. Villarreal’s odds might improve slightly if they manage to beat Espanyol on Monday evening.
