The projections below come from a Supercomputer powered by Opta, which simulated the Premier League season using the fixture list and data from the first 12 gameweeks.
Here’s how the Supercomputer sees the 2025-26 season playing out.
Relegation Zone
A troubling pattern at the bottom of the table may finally be broken. In both 2023/24 and 2024/25, all three promoted teams were relegated immediately.
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This time, Sunderland are expected to avoid the drop. However, Leeds United and Burnley are still predicted to go down under Daniel Farke and Scott Parker, finishing 18th and 19th respectively with 34 points each. ..Continue Reading
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West Ham are forecast to struggle following Graham Potter’s departure and the arrival of Nuno Espirito Santo. They’re expected to finish just above the relegation zone with 38 points — only four more than Burnley.
It would be a steep decline for a club still recovering from the highs of the David Moyes era.
Wolves, who have yet to win a match after 12 attempts, are projected to stay bottom of the table through to the end of the season.
Fans at Molineux will be hoping new manager Rob Edwards can pull off something extraordinary.
Interestingly, the Supercomputer predicts just nine points will separate Burnley in 19th from Nottingham Forest in 16th, suggesting a tight relegation battle that could go down to the final minutes of the last matchday.
Forest recently appointed their third manager of the season, Sean Dyche, but expectations remain low despite a shock 3-0 win at Anfield.
The club is still dealing with the fallout from parting ways with Nuno Espirito Santo.
Under Ange Postecoglou, they failed to win any of their eight matches, including a 3-2 League Cup defeat to Swansea City after leading 2-0. A 16th-place finish would be seen as unacceptable, especially under owner Evangelos Marinakis.
Given current form, it’s hard to believe Sunderland will end up as low as 15th.
That position isn’t terrible considering their recent climb back to the Premier League after dropping as far as League One, but they currently sit seventh and have only lost three times.
Manager Regis Le Bris has done well, and based on their performance against Arsenal, a top-10 finish doesn’t seem out of reach.
– 15. Sunderland – 45 points
– 16. Nottingham Forest – 43 points
– 17. West Ham – 38 points
– 18. Leeds United – 34 points
– 19. Burnley – 34 points
– 20. Wolves – 24 points
Bottom Half
Fulham are expected to finish 14th, one spot lower than last season.
They continue to struggle to break into the next tier, unlike some of their rivals, with only West Ham finishing below them among London clubs.
Everton were seen as potential surprise contenders this season. With new American owners, a fresh stadium, and high-profile signings like Jack Grealish, David Moyes looked set to build something promising at Bramley-Moore Docks.
But if they do end up 13th as predicted, it would be a disappointing outcome at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Losses to Liverpool, Leeds, Man City, Wolves, and most recently Tottenham have hurt their campaign, though some of those defeats were seen as unlucky. They did manage to end Crystal Palace’s 19-game unbeaten streak and beat Manchester United at Old Trafford with 10 men.
Manchester United have only lost once since their 3-1 defeat to Brentford, but the Supercomputer still predicts a midtable finish.
Landing in 11th would raise questions about Ruben Amorim’s leadership, especially after summer signings like Bryan Mbeumo, Benjamin Sesko, and Matheus Cunha. His reluctance to adapt may be holding the team back.
Brentford, meanwhile, would be pleased with 12th place after a summer of major changes. They lost Mbeumo to United, Wissa to Newcastle, and manager Thomas Frank to Tottenham.
Despite these setbacks, new boss Keith Andrews has kept the team on track with some key results.
11. Manchester United – 53 points
12. Brentford – 52 points
13. Everton – 51 points
14. Fulham – 45 points
Top Half
Tottenham are projected to finish 10th, just ahead of Fulham. While that would usually be seen as progress from last season’s near-relegation, internal tensions have put Thomas Frank under pressure. A string of home losses and a heavy defeat to Arsenal have only added to the scrutiny.
Bournemouth continue to impress under Andoni Iraola. After narrowly missing out on Europe last season with a ninth-place finish, they’re expected to match that again — a sign of steady growth.
Newcastle United are predicted to drop to eighth after finishing fifth last season. Injuries and inconsistent performances from players like Wissa and Elanga have hurt their campaign. Despite a big win over Man City, recent losses like the 3-1 defeat to Brentford have exposed their flaws.
Brighton & Hove Albion have quietly gone about their business this season. Under Fabian Hurzeler, they’re expected to finish seventh — a solid result that reflects their continued development.
Crystal Palace, fresh off their first-ever FA Cup win, are tipped to finish sixth. They’ve already beaten Liverpool twice this season and won the Community Shield. A Europa League spot would be a strong statement under Oliver Glasner, especially after missing out last year due to UEFA’s ownership rules.
Aston Villa are forecast to finish fifth under Unai Emery. After a slow start, they’ve won nine of their last 11 games and are now in strong form both domestically and in Europe. Despite financial pressures, Emery has kept the team competitive.
5. Aston Villa – 62 points
6. Crystal Palace – 61 points
7. Brighton & Hove Albion – 57 points
8. Newcastle United – 55 points
9. Bournemouth – 54 points
10. Tottenham – 53 points
Top Four
Liverpool spent heavily in the summer, breaking the British transfer record twice to sign Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, along with Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Giovanni Leoni, and Hugo Ekitike. Despite this, they are predicted to finish fourth with 64 points, 12 behind the champions.
Arne Slot’s team started the season with several late wins, but opponents have since exploited their weakness against long balls. They’ve now lost six of their last seven league matches. While their form is concerning, they are still expected to qualify for the Champions League.
Chelsea fans were the most hopeful heading into the season, according to a survey. However, a third-place finish with 64 points — 17 behind the leaders — may disappoint some, even though it marks back-to-back Champions League qualifications under Enzo Maresca. If they add another trophy, it would be three in two years under his leadership.
Manchester City are expected to finish second. Their recent improvement has coincided with Erling Haaland’s scoring streak, including goals against Burnley, Brentford, and Everton. Still, it won’t be enough to overtake Arsenal.
Arsenal are projected to win the league with a 10-point lead over City. With Viktor Gyokeres leading the attack and Eberechi Eze adding depth, they’ve conceded just five goals in their first 11 matches. After more than 20 years without a title, this could be the season they finally reclaim the crown.
1. Arsenal – 81 points
2. Manchester City – 71 points
3. Chelsea – 64 points
4. Liverpool – 64 points

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