The opening 30 minutes of Manchester United’s 2-0 loss to Newcastle to end a dismal 2024 were as humbling as any in the 11-and-a-half-year post-Ferguson era.
A 64-year-old midfield pairing struggled as Newcastle’s midfield effortlessly dominated, leading to an early setback. ..Continue Reading
Stability returned once Kobbie Mainoo was introduced, but United’s fate was already sealed with Amorim’s team selection.
The new head coach faced a monumental task from the outset, but few expected a relegation battle in the 2024/25 season. Within two months of his appointment, Amorim acknowledged that United are in a relegation fight.
Following Ipswich Town’s first home win of the season against Chelsea, United now have just a seven-point cushion above the relegation zone.
The team appears to be floundering despite being managed by one of Europe’s most promising coaches, but surely Manchester United won’t face their first relegation since 1974, will they?
This is Manchester United we’re discussing.
What are United’s chances of relegation from the Premier League?
Despite their downturn and grim short-term prospects, Opta suggests the likelihood of United being relegated this season is minimal.
In the latest 10,000 simulations by their supercomputer, United were relegated only 15 times (0.15%).
They’ve accumulated 22 points at the halfway mark of the 2024/25 campaign and are on pace for 44 points at this rate. However, this drops slightly when considering their record under Amorim.
United are averaging 0.88 points per game under the Portuguese coach, which would see them finish the season with 39 points.
Either total would be United’s worst in Premier League history. Their poorest performance before this season was 59 points in 2021/22.
According to the Premier League’s official website, teams usually avoid relegation with 36 points, but there have been six instances in a 38-game season where clubs were relegated with 39 or more points, the most recent being Blackpool in 2010/11. More recently, 18th-place Luton Town accumulated just 26 points last season.
Relegation seems highly unlikely, but the fact that this conversation is even happening mid-season is a stark indicator of United’s decline.
Opta predicts Amorim’s side will finish a disappointing 12th, though a busy January could disrupt the project entirely.
Southampton will visit Old Trafford on January 16, aiming to push United into deeper despair.
