The Premier League pauses for the first international break of 2025, setting the stage for an intense finish to the season.
Liverpool commands a commanding 12-point lead at the top, while the newly promoted teams have steadily lost their edge, highlighting the key pressure zones as the campaign nears its conclusion.
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The battle for European qualification remains fiercely contested, with only five points separating fourth and tenth place after an eventful weekend that saw both Chelsea and Manchester City stumble once again. ..Continue Reading
As the final nine games of the 2024/25 season approach, Opta’s supercomputer has shared its predictions for how the heated race for the top four might unfold.
Predicted 2024/25 Premier League table – top half
Position
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. Nottingham Forest
4. Man City
5. Newcastle
6. Chelsea
7. Brighton
8. Aston Villa
9. Bournemouth
10. Fulham
After falling behind La Liga and Serie A in European representation last season, the Premier League is now on course to secure an additional qualifying spot for the 2025/26 Champions League.
This would likely see the top five teams advance to Europe’s elite club competition, while Newcastle’s Carabao Cup triumph on Sunday has opened the possibility of up to 11 English clubs competing in continental tournaments next season.
Liverpool and Arsenal appear to have their top-four places virtually locked in, while Nottingham Forest has built a strong lead after securing back-to-back victories.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s team currently sits four and five points ahead of Chelsea and Manchester City, respectively, with Opta estimating a 70.21% chance of Forest returning to Europe’s top competition for the first time since 1980/81.
Although the defending champions, Manchester City, faltered at the City Ground and managed just a draw at home against Brighton, they are still projected to finish fourth with 66.02 points, narrowly behind Forest.
Chelsea’s struggles continued with a lackluster 1-0 loss to Arsenal, hurting their prospects, while a revitalized Newcastle side, fresh off their Wembley success, is predicted to finish above the Blues.
Newcastle has already secured at least a Conference League spot but could reclaim that position if they qualify for the Europa League or Champions League via their league standings.
Currently, Newcastle sits just a point behind Chelsea and City with a game in hand. Meanwhile, Brighton’s recent performances, including their result at the Etihad, haven’t significantly boosted their chances, as Opta places their odds of a Champions League spot at just 8.32%.
The likes of Aston Villa (3.02%), Bournemouth (1.68%), and Fulham (0.56%) have slim hopes, while Crystal Palace could benefit from an extraordinary scenario.
This would involve Villa, Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur, and Chelsea succeeding in their respective European campaigns while meeting specific league finish requirements.
For this to happen, Forest, City, and Newcastle must also secure top-five finishes alongside Liverpool and Arsenal.
