As the 2024-25 Champions League knockout stages approach, fans and pundits are eagerly sharing their predictions for Europe’s premier club competition.
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However, Los Blancos have faced some setbacks, and Liverpool’s remarkable start to the tournament has led many to believe that Arne Slot’s squad could clinch the title.
Following the conclusion of the controversial new league phase, which saw unexpected performances from teams like Brest and Monaco, The Sun’s Supercomputer has simulated the remainder of the tournament to predict the most likely champions of Europe.
The data experts have provided an interesting analysis of each team’s expected performance based on 10,000 simulations, highlighting their likelihood of winning the tournament.
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While some fans might feel disappointed with their team’s chances, others may be pleasantly surprised by their predictions.
The initial league stage, consisting of eight matchdays, determined the teams that will directly advance to the knockout rounds (the top eight) and those that will need to compete in a playoff to secure a spot in the Round of 16 (ranks 9th to 24th). Let’s take a look at the final standings.
Key highlights include Liverpool and Barcelona finishing in first and second, respectively, positioning them well for an easier path to the final in Munich.
Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and surprise package Lille followed closely behind. Notably, Lille stunned last season’s champions, Real Madrid, with an impressive 1-0 victory.
On the other hand, several teams fell short of expectations and now face an extra match to earn a place in the Round of 16. These teams include the reigning European champions Bayern Munich, PSG, and Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola’s side had to stage a dramatic second-half comeback against Club Brugge to secure their progress on the final matchday.
The Supercomputer’s predictions suggest that Arsenal will maintain their momentum from the league phase and secure victory at the Allianz Arena.
The Gunners are tipped to go all the way, with Mikel Arteta finally guiding the club to a major honor in the form of a European trophy, something that has eluded them throughout their history. The Supercomputer gives Arsenal a 24% chance of lifting the trophy.
Despite their recent struggles, Manchester City remains among the top eight most likely teams to reach the final. Real Madrid, despite their recent challenges in the tournament, also feature in this group. Both teams will need to navigate the playoff format, but the Supercomputer gives the Spanish giants an 11% chance of victory, compared to City’s 7%.
PSG and Barcelona are expected to progress far, along with Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. Aston Villa, Atalanta, and Bayer Leverkusen fall short of the top eight most likely winners.
Interestingly, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, and Juventus, despite their continental pedigree, have been given just a 1% chance of glory.
Additionally, Celtic has been given a 4% chance of making it past the playoffs, while Brest, PSV, Monaco, Feyenoord, and Club Brugge face long odds of reaching the semi-finals.
As the knockout stages commence, it will be fascinating to see how these predictions hold up and which team ultimately emerges as the Champions of Europe.
