Supercomputer predicts 2026 World Cup winner before draw

Forecasting the next champion is no easy feat, especially ahead of Friday’s group stage draw, but the Opta supercomputer has attempted to predict the tournament’s eventual winner.

Argentina will be among the most popular picks to lift the trophy. The defending champions possess the experience and talent to reign again, with Lionel Messi still delivering his signature brilliance in blue and white. Yet, Opta’s projections do not place the South American side among the top three favorites.

Spain lead the pack according to the supercomputer, with a 17% probability of capturing football’s greatest honor. Luis de la Fuente’s squad, reigning European champions, are lauded for their cohesion and depth.

From their abundance of gifted midfielders to their elite attacking options, their lineup appears nearly flawless.

France follow closely behind, with a 14.1% chance of adding a third star to their crest.

Winners in 2018 and finalists in 2022, Les Bleus are expected to contend once more, with Kylian Mbappé aiming to secure a second title after his breakout success at 19.

England, often labeled underachievers, are next in line. Opta shows strong belief in Thomas Tuchel’s ability to end six decades of heartbreak, assigning the Three Lions an 11.8% chance of repeating their 1966 triumph. Their current squad certainly has the tools to compete at the highest level.

Argentina follow with an 8.7% likelihood, as Lionel Scaloni’s men pursue a fourth title and a second on North American soil, having previously triumphed in Mexico in 1978.

They topped the CONMEBOL qualifiers with ease and are expected to field a squad similar to their victorious 2022 campaign, making them a formidable force once again.

Germany’s erratic form places them further down the list at 7.1%, while Portugal, with Cristiano Ronaldo likely making his final World Cup appearance, are just behind at 6.6%. Both sides are capable of winning, though not considered frontrunners.

Brazil, who also lifted the trophy in North America in 1970, are given a 5.6% chance despite boasting a star-studded roster under Carlo Ancelotti.

Like Germany and Portugal, the Seleção are not out of the question, but recent tournament performances suggest a tough road ahead.

The Netherlands, still chasing their first title, are surprisingly rated at 5.2%. They reached the Euro 2024 semifinals but only made the quarterfinals in Qatar and missed out entirely in 2018.

Erling Haaland’s lethal finishing gives Norway a 2.3% shot at a stunning run, while Luis Díaz’s Colombia round out the top ten with a 2.0% chance. Opta also assigns a 3.7% probability to one of the playoff winners emerging victorious, largely due to Italy’s presence in the European playoffs.

Spain – 17.0%
France -14.1%
England – 11.8%
Argentina – 8.7%
Germany – 7.1%
Portugal – 6.6%
Brazil – 5.6%
Netherlands – 5.2%
Norway – 2.3%
Colombia – 2.0%

Despite a poor run since their Gold Cup triumph last summer, Mexico are the most favored host nation, with a 1.3% chance of winning. Such a feat would be extraordinary, especially as they’ve never progressed beyond the quarterfinals.

The USMNT, though ranked higher than Mexico by FIFA, are given just a 0.9% chance by the supercomputer. They trail behind nations like Morocco, Ecuador, and Japan, with limited expectations for Mauricio Pochettino’s squad in the latter stages.

Canada, with a 0.4% chance, rank below Austria, Senegal, and Ivory Coast. Their World Cup history is sparse, having only qualified twice before and losing all group matches in both appearances.