This season will be the 71st edition of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, with 24 different clubs having lifted the trophy to date. ..Continue Reading
After simulating the tournament 10,000 times, Opta’s supercomputer has crowned Liverpool as the most likely winner of the 2025-26 Champions League, with a 20.4% chance of claiming the title.
Despite being knocked out in the round of 16 last season by eventual champions PSG, Arne Slot’s side impressed in the league phase and are expected to dominate again.
Arsenal follows closely with a 16.0% chance, riding high on their strong defensive record under Mikel Arteta. The Gunners reached the semi-finals last season and are tipped to finally break their Champions League curse.
Paris Saint-Germain, fresh off their historic 5-0 final win over Inter Milan last season, are third favorites at 12.1%, though a tough fixture list could complicate their title defense.
The New Format: A League of Giants
This season continues with the new structure introduced last year: 36 teams in a single league phase, each playing eight matches.
The top eight qualify directly for the round of 16, while teams ranked 9th to 24th battle it out in a play-off round. The bottom 12 and play-off losers? Eliminated from all European competition.
This shake-up has added unpredictability and excitement—last season saw an average of 3.27 goals per game, the highest since 1975-76.
Other Notable Predictions
Manchester City and Barcelona both have an 8.4% chance of winning, though City’s recent struggles and Barça’s semi-final exit last season temper expectations.
Chelsea, fresh off a Club World Cup triumph, are given a 7.0% chance, while Real Madrid (5.8%) and Bayern Munich (4.3%) round out the chasing pack.
Inter, Newcastle, and Tottenham are considered dark horses, each with a 1–3% chance of glory.
Outsiders and Long Shots
Teams like Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Atalanta, and PSV are seen as long shots, with less than a 1% chance of winning. Meanwhile, debutants Pafos, Kairat, and Qarabağ didn’t win a single simulation—though in football, miracles do happen.
While data can’t predict the chaos and magic of knockout football, Opta’s supercomputer offers a fascinating look at how the numbers stack up.
Liverpool may be the statistical favorite, but with giants lurking and underdogs rising, the 2025-26 Champions League promises to be unforgettable.
