After two days of failed comebacks, the lineup for the Champions League semi-finals is finally complete.
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Real Madrid fell short at home, unable to break down a resilient Arsenal side. The Gunners have now booked a spot in the semi-finals for the first time in 16 years.
Mikel Arteta’s squad is on the brink of making history, and with a clash against Paris Saint-Germain on the horizon, we’re guaranteed at least one potential first-time finalist at the grand finale on May 26.
Three of the top four teams from the league phase are still in the running, each representing a different country. With two exciting semi-finals ahead, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer assesses the title chances of the remaining contenders as they edge closer to glory.
Following their dominant performance against Real Madrid last week, Opta now considers Arsenal the front-runners to win the Champions League.
Their composed 2-1 win in the Spanish capital on Wednesday only strengthened their case, with Opta’s supercomputer projecting that the Gunners will get past PSG in the semi-finals and defeat either Barcelona or Inter in the final in Munich this May.
Arsenal came out on top in 28.7% of the supercomputer’s simulations—the highest among the four remaining teams.
While Inter might not be as commanding as they once were under Simone Inzaghi, their impressive quarter-final triumph over Bayern Munich has boosted their odds.
The second leg was a rollercoaster, but the Nerazzurri held on for a dramatic 4-3 aggregate win.
According to Opta, Inter now have a 25.5% chance of lifting the trophy—the second-best probability going into the semi-finals.
Their next challenge is a familiar one: a semi-final rematch with Barcelona, echoing their memorable clash 15 years ago.
Hansi Flick’s Barcelona sit comfortably atop La Liga and have suffered just one defeat in 2025, yet Opta suggests Inter may pose a difficult matchup for the Catalan giants.
Despite their strong domestic form, Barca are ranked lowest among the four semi-finalists, winning just 21.8% of Opta’s simulations. Their shaky second-leg display against Borussia Dortmund—nearly surrendering a 4-0 first-leg advantage—didn’t inspire much confidence.
PSG, meanwhile, also faced a scare from Aston Villa, conceding three quick goals in the second half before regaining control and booking their place in the semis.
Luis Enrique’s side now face Arsenal once more, having lost 2-0 to them earlier this season at the Emirates.
Though PSG have improved significantly in 2025, Opta still leans toward Arsenal, giving the Parisians a 24% chance of clinching their first-ever Champions League title.
