Supercomputer predicts final 25/26 La Liga table after Real Madrid’s win over Barcelona

Real Madrid as La Liga title favorites, with Oviedo and Valencia facing relegation risk

The 2025/26 football season is well underway across Europe, with clubs in various leagues looking to establish dominance in the early months of competition.

In England, Mikel Arteta’s side has surged ahead in the Premier League, while Paris Saint-Germain, fresh off their Ligue 1 and Champions League triumphs, have made a strong start in France.

In Spain, La Liga is back in full swing. Barcelona were last season’s champions, finishing four points ahead of Real Madrid.

As expected, the two giants are once again tipped to battle for the title, with Atletico Madrid waiting in the wings to capitalize on any slip-ups.

Although it may seem premature to call a winner, Opta has run 10,000 simulations using its advanced data models to forecast the final standings for all 20 La Liga teams by May 2026.

Real Madrid emerged as the most likely champions, winning the league in 68.91 percent of simulations, giving Xabi Alonso’s squad a commanding edge.

Barcelona followed with a 25.8 percent chance, meaning the top two accounted for nearly 95 percent of all outcomes.

Atletico Madrid, despite a slow start with just four wins in nine matches, were given a 3.4 percent chance of winning the title. Villarreal were the only other team with more than a 1 percent chance, at 1.5 percent.

Other teams like Real Betis (0.42 percent) and Athletic Club (next in line) were included in the title odds, but their chances were significantly lower. Betis, despite signing Antony after his impressive loan spell last season, couldn’t crack the top tier of predictions.

European Qualification Race

While the title race is dominated by the usual suspects, the battle for European spots is wide open. Opta’s model shows that every team in La Liga managed to finish in the top four at least once across the 10,000 simulations. With five Champions League spots potentially available again, even fifth place could secure a ticket to Europe’s elite competition.

Villarreal lead the race for fourth with a 62.7 percent chance, followed by Real Betis at 29.6 percent. Athletic Club, bolstered by Nico Williams, Inaki Williams, and top scorer Oihan Sancet, remain competitive despite last season’s goal-scoring struggles.

Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano are projected to finish seventh and eighth, respectively. Surprisingly, Real Sociedad, now managed by Sergio Francisco, are more likely to be relegated (19.62 percent) than finish in the top four (0.79 percent), despite their strong Europa League run last season.

Relegation Outlook

At the bottom of the table, the relegation battle is heating up. Newly promoted sides Real Oviedo, Elche, and Levante entered the season with hope, but Opta’s simulations suggest a tough road ahead for some.

Oviedo are predicted to be relegated in 64.9 percent of simulations, marking a potentially bittersweet return to La Liga for the first time since 2000/01. Elche, on the other hand, are forecasted to finish 13th with around 46 points and have just a 12.10 percent chance of going down.

Levante, champions of the Segunda Division last season, have a 68.82 percent chance of survival. Getafe, who narrowly escaped relegation last term, are safer this time with only an 8.01 percent chance of dropping.

Valencia, once a powerhouse in Spanish football, face a 22.34 percent chance of relegation, while Mallorca are also in danger with a 21.15 percent probability of being dragged into the survival fight.

Supercomputer La Liga Overall Positions

1. Real Madrid

2. Barcelona

3. Atletico Madrid

4. Villarreal

5. Real Betis

6. Athletic Club

7. Espanyol

8. Rayo Vallecano

9. Getafe

10. Osasuna

11. Sevilla

12. Celta Vigo

13. Elche

14. Alaves

15. Real Sociedad

16. Mallorca

17. Valencia

18. Levante

19. Girona

20. Real Oviedo