The model has assessed the likelihood of each of the 16 participating teams advancing through the knockout rounds and ultimately lifting the trophy. ..Continue Reading
According to Opta’s projections, Paris Saint-Germain are the frontrunners to win the newly expanded Club World Cup, following their recent Champions League triumph.
The group stage concluded on Thursday, with Real Madrid cruising past Red Bull Salzburg, finalizing the matchups for the round of 16.
Both English clubs—Manchester City and Chelsea—have progressed to the knockout phase. City, in particular, impressed with a flawless group stage performance.
They join a host of European heavyweights including Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Benfica, and Juventus, who have all secured their places in the next round.
Brazilian clubs are also well-represented, with Botafogo, Palmeiras, Fluminense, and Flamengo all advancing. Other qualifiers include Al-Hilal from Saudi Arabia, Mexico’s Monterrey, and Inter Miami from the United States.
Despite the strong competition, PSG, under Luis Enrique’s leadership, have been given a 20.6% chance of winning the tournament.
Their first test will be against Inter Miami, led by former PSG icon Lionel Messi, in a highly anticipated clash at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday.
Should PSG overcome Inter Miami, they will face either Bayern Munich or Flamengo in the quarterfinals—part of a challenging path on the tougher side of the bracket.
Manchester City are close behind in the odds, with a 20.4% chance of winning. Their dominant 5-2 victory over Juventus in Orlando has reignited hopes of salvaging what has otherwise been a disappointing season.
Inter Milan, who suffered a heavy defeat to PSG in Munich last month, are third in the rankings with a 12.4% chance. Bayern Munich follow with 11.3%, while Chelsea are given a 10.4% shot at the title.
Real Madrid, five-time winners under the previous format, have a 9.7% chance of securing their first trophy under new manager Xabi Alonso. Borussia Dortmund, Benfica, and Juventus round out the top nine, all representing Europe.
Palmeiras are the highest-ranked non-European side, though their chances are slim at just 0.9%. Flamengo, Al-Hilal, Botafogo, Inter Miami, Monterrey, and Fluminense have each been given a 0.5% chance or lower.
The round of 16 matches will be played between June 28 and July 2, with the final scheduled for Sunday, July 13.
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